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GBPUSD: Biased To The Downside Nearer Term

The pair may be struggling to trigger a recovery but as long as the 1.6268 level, its May 09’2011 low and the 1.6378 level, its May 12’2011 high cap gains, GBP is likely to turn back lower towards the 1.6164 level,its April 18’2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 1.6000 level, its big psycho level. A respite could occur here and turn the pair higher again.

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Slightly lower, support stands at the 1.5935 level, its Mar 28’2011. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, above the 1.6268 level, its May 09’2011 low and the 1.6378 level, its May 12’2011 will clear the way for more strength towards the 1.6516 level, its May 11′ 2011 high and subsequently the 1.6743 level, its 2011 high.

Beyond this level will resume the pair’s long term uptrend now on hold towards the 1.6877 level, its Nov’2009 high where a break will set the stage for further strength towards the 1.7039 level, its 2009 higher.

GOLD: Vulnerable Despite Price Hesitation

GOLD: The commodity may have halted its recent corrective weakness at the 1,477.30 level having closed flat at the past week. However, it remains vulnerable.

We are seeing two scenarios likely to play out.One being a break back below the 1,462.15 level with a loss of there turning risk towards its .618. Fib Ret (1,380.85- 1,576.20 rally) at 1,455.00.

A combination of these two levels is expected to provide a strong support and turn the commodity back up in the direction of its larger trend. However, if this fails, the 1,443.70 level, its April 12’2011 low will be targeted ahead of the 1,409.75 level, its Mar 28’2011 low and then the 1,380.85 level, its Mar 15’2011 low.

Alternatively, the second scenario will be a break and hold above the 1,576.20 level, its 2011 high. This will set the stage for further gains towards its psycho level at 1,600 and then the 1,650.00 level.