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According to the latest Reuters poll of fx stategists, the GBP faces upside risks in the next month if the UK leaves the European Union (EU) with a deal but could resume the bearish momentum against the dollar in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Key Findings:

“The economists surveyed in the past three years have consistently said a deal would be struck. If that is the case, sterling – which was changing hands for around $1.24 on Thursday – would rally and trade between $1.27 and $1.34

In contrast, if Britain leaves without a deal the pound will fall and trade between $1.10 and $1.19. Two respondents said it could reach parity with the greenback – a level not seen before.

Median forecasts in the wider poll of around 70 foreign exchange strategists, taken this week, said one pound would be worth $1.22 in a month, $1.25 in six months and $1.28 in a year.

Against the euro, the one-, six- and 12-month forecasts were for 89.2 pence, 89.5p and 88.0p.”