RBA: Expect a rate cut in February – Westpac

Westpac’s Bill Evans keeps his view of a rate cut in February intact while also looking forward to the next week’s speech by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe’s speech.

Key quotes

“The minutes of the November monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board give us no significant reason to change our view that the next rate cut will occur in February.”

“While some forecasters have been promoting the idea of a move in December, the minutes provided the flavour of a Board that is in no hurry to make the next cut.”

“Nevertheless, the minutes do not want to leave the reader in any doubt that the Board continues to have a clear easing bias.”

“Some commentaries interpreted the latter remark as indicating that the Board was close to cutting rates at the meeting. However, my view is that it was used to emphasise a strong easing bias, particularly aimed at containing any upward drift in the AUD rather than any serious risk of an unexpected move in November.”