Analysts at Westpac have explained that risk appetite was positive in London and NY trade, equities and bond yields mostly higher.
Key Quotes:
“European equities rose and the S&P 500 gained for a fourth straight day, with most chatter about Q2 earnings season rather than trade tensions. However, there was some sign of the latter having an impact on investor sentiment in Europe at least. The ZEW surveys surprised with a decline in German current conditions (72.4, exp. 78.1, prior 80.6) and both Eurozone and German expectations (Germany -24.7, exp. -18.9, prior -16.1; EZ -18.7, prior -12.6), reflecting slippage across all sectors. This breaks the recent streak of German/pan-EU data beating estimates. The -24.7 on the index of German investor expectations of economic growth is the lowest since 2012.”
“The US dollar rose steadily during the London morning against the likes of the euro, Aussie and kiwi but then shed its gains in NY. EUR/USD roundtripped from 1.1750 to 1.1690 and back. AUD/USD roundtripped from 0.7470 to 0.7430 and back, though it then slipped to 0.7440 on the US tariff headlines. NZD/USD is net little changed at 0.6830, via a low of 0.6806. AUD/NZD ranged sideways between 1.0900 and 1.0930.”
“US 10yr treasury yields nudged higher from 2.86% to 2.87%, while 2yr yields rose from 2.56% to 2.58% – within 1bp of a decade high. Fed fund futures yields continued to price 1 ½ more hikes in 2018.”
“USD/JPY nudged higher from 111.00 to 111.35 – a two month high, the defensive yen underperforming from London to late NY. Then however a Bloomberg story claimed that the US administration is close to releasing a list of a further $200bn in Chinese imports that could be subject to tariffs. This is in line with President Trump’s threats but clearly caught markets off guard at a quiet time of day. USD/JPY slid under 111.”
“UK data was mixed. May’s trade deficit beat expectations (-GBP2.7bn, exp -GBP3.4bn) and there were positive revisions to the April release. The inaugural ONS release of monthly GDP came in line with expectations (+0.3% m/m for May) but both industrial (-0.4% m/m, exp. +0.5%) and manufacturing (+0.4% m/m, exp. +0.8%m/m) production levels were weaker, partly on maintenance-affected oil output. Construction, which has been particularly weak this year, rebounded more than anticipated, mainly due to good weather (+2.9%m/m, exp +0.6%m/m).”
“GBP/USD was choppy on the data and ongoing UK political headlines, emerging from NY trade up marginally on the day, around 1.3275. It may have helped that German chancellor Merkel welcomed UK PM May’s Brexit plan. Pricing for the BoE to hike rates in August was resilient, around 75-80%.”
“The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed a 200k+ drop in job openings to 6.62mn for May but that comes after a record high 6.84mn in April and comfortably exceeds the number of officially unemployed (6.56mn). The quits rate, which measures the share of employees leaving their jobs voluntarily, rose to 2.4% from 2.3%, the highest since the survey began 17 years ago, signaling strong confidence in employment prospects. The NFIB small business survey edged lower to a still historically very elevated 107.2 in June from 107.8 last month.”
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