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TD Securities analysis team suggests that contrary to the consensus, they expect the CBR to cut its Key Rate by 50bps to 6.5% at today’s Board Meeting – twice the 25bps expected in the Bloomberg survey.

Key Quotes

“Since the September meeting, inflation developments have once again surprised to the downside. Russia’s CPI is already running below the 4% target and is expected to decrease further on the back of strong base effects from last year’s VAT hikes.”

“Governor Nabiullina has recently mentioned that “space for further easing of monetary policy” has opened up. She also hinted that the CBR’s year-end inflation forecasts may be revised down. The later would be unusual, given that this is a non-core meeting, but her hint makes us believe that the CBR will front-load easing.”

“We expect a cut of 50bps at today’s meeting and another follow-up move of 50bps at the December meeting.”