Scotland: No campaign on track for victory – is GBP/USD

Over half the Scottish regions have declared the results, and the No campaign seems  on track to  secure a comfortable victory. This is far from over as the two biggest cities, Glasgow and Edinburgh have not reported yet, so anything is still possible. Yet the margin seems quite wide:

GBP/USD is trading around 1.6510, below the highs of the day seen at 1.6523. Is a No victory fully priced in at this point? Could we see a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” event when the official result is declared?

Big update:  Networks call the elections: No to Scottish Independence

And that’s it:  Scotland officially rejects independence – it’s all over

Well, this is a special, historic event, and it is hard to assess the full reaction. We also have to take into account that the UK economy is doing well and that the BOE is getting closer to raising the rates.

However, as we got closer to September 18th, a No result began being priced in, and one  betting firm even paid out on some of the No bets.

If so, we have support at 1.6445, followed by 1.64. If we get the expected, buy GBP reaction, 1.6540 is the next level of resistance.

 Scotland Referendum: GBP/USD levels to watch out for

The result is Glasgow is critical for result.

Updates

• In Glasgow, 53% Yes. 47% No. Is this enough to tip the campaign towards yes?
• GBP/USD is now moving up, getting closer towards the 1.6523 high.
• 23/32 regions declared, No leads by around 200K votes. That’s a gap of  around 9%.
• Another region says No, 8 more to go.
• Sky News calls the election.
• 26/32 regions counts  No leads 54%, GBP/USD ticks down.
• Here is GBP/USD selling the fact: will it hold?