Search ForexCrunch

EUR: Focus on the German production numbers after the stronger orders data yesterday gave the euro a lift, although it was notable that the euro failed to sustain the gains later on.   Production is seen falling 0.1% in March, after 0.5% gain during February.

NZD: Labour market data is released at 23:45 GMT, with the unemployment rate seen nudging lower to 6.8%. Note that AUDNZD has been moving lower for the previous 7 weeks now, but comments overnight threaten a continuation of this trend. See how to trade the New Zealand job data with NZD/USD.

GBP: The market will have half an eye on the state opening of parliament, but it’s not likely to be a market moving event.

Idea of the Day

Things are changing in FX, perhaps more so than usual.   Three themes are worth noting. Firstly, the dollar’s positive correlation with data surprises has been falling, but this should not be that surprising.   Earlier in the year, there was excitement at stronger data on the basis that this could mean the Fed withdrawing stimulus earlier than expected, but subsequent data and comments have undermined this.   Secondly, the Aussie rate cut has further put to bed the risk-on/risk-off categorisation that dominated last year, but this has been a long-running theme.   Finally, there is a lot more two-way traffic in the yen, so the dominant trend of the first quarter has turned a lot more neutral. What this leaves us with is a market currently more inclined to trade ranges, rather than push new territory. That was evident yesterday with USDJPY’s move away from the 100 level, the Aussie’s failure to test the year lows after the rate cut and the reluctance of the euro to hold above the 1.31 level.   The CAD and the NZD are the main exceptions, with AUDNZD having pushed lower for the previous 7 weeks.   Having failed to break below 1.20 on a sustained basis yesterday, keep an eye on AUDNZD for a possible reversal, especially in light of the latest comments from the central bank governor overnight, suggesting more intervention may have taken place to weaken the currency.

Latest FX News

JPY:  Fighting the trends towards a stronger dollar and once again this lead to a push back from a test of 100 on USDJPY.   EURJPY was the main mover on Tuesday, the push above 130 soon undermined by the afternoon’s change in tone.

GBP:  Suffering on Tuesday although not real specific factors were behind the move, with cable moving back below the 1.55 level.    Overnight data suggested a weak retail picture, the BRC measure showing like for like sales falling 2.2% YoY. More:  Forex Analysis: GBP/USD Stalls Below Major 50% Resistance

NZD:  Revering some of the recent strength on the back of comments from the central bank chief Wheeler, who said that “there had been intervention” which will become evident in their balance sheet data later this month.

EUR:   The push above 1.31 on EURUSD soon met with sellers during the afternoon session, the euro suffering in line with sterling.  EUR/USD trading in a symmetrical triangle on the hourly chart – where next?