Analysts at Nomura offered their view in a nutshell for the US economy.
Key Quotes:
“Tax cuts and increased federal spending should help keep growth above potential into 2019.”
“Waning fiscal stimulus, tighter monetary policy and increased supply constraints is likely to slow growth over 2019 and into 2020.”
“Above-potential growth will likely push down the unemployment rate to 3.2% at end-2019, where it could remain through 2020.”
“Core inflation should pick up gradually as labour markets tighten further and the economy runs beyond potential.”
“We expect four hikes from the FOMC in 2018 and two hikes in 2019 before the FOMC takes an extended pause through 2020.”
“The Fed balance sheet roll-off is likely to continue in the background, raising long-term interest rates only gradually.”
“Notable risks include aggressive trade policy by Trump administration and a sharp deterioration in financial conditions.”
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