According to a report from JPMorgan Chase & Co. citing its insurance team’s epidemiology model, the coronavirus outbreak could peak at 10,000 in South Korea by next month.
Key takeaways
“That scenario assumes a 3% initial exposed group out of about 2.4 million people in Daegu Metropolitan City and a secondary infection rate based on China’s experience with the virus, analysts led by JJ Park wrote in the note dated Feb. 24.
The epidemic has frustrated previous efforts to predict how it might develop around the world and has made global financial markets more volatile.
Given the “sudden and substantial increase in infected cases,” it sees further downside risks for economic growth.
In Korea, potential disruptions from the virus in the supply chain, domestic consumption, exports and incoming travelers could hurt sectors including banks, casinos, consumers, autos, petrochemicals and technology.”
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