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S&P 500 posted a relatively neutral session on Friday following last week’s earlier reversal from near-term resistance at 3279/81, which moved the market back below the lower end of its large February price gap at 3260. The risk for a swing lower within the broader range remains in place, with a move below the 3200 level needed to complete a near-term top, according to the Credit Suisse analyst team. 

Key quotes

“With Nasdaq 100 still holding its bearish ‘reversal day’ from two weeks ago and with growing signs of ‘risk-off’ elsewhere (bond yields remain seen at risk of a meaningful move lower again), the risk is seen building again for a retracement lower.”

“Key near-term support is seen at its 13-day average at 3211, with a break below 3200/3198 needed to confirm a near-term top. This would then open the door to a swing lower within the broader sideways range with support seen next at 3173, ahead of 3154 and then more importantly 3116.”

“Resistance is seen at 3227, then 3236, with a move above 3248 needed to see a move back to 3266. Above 3279/81 though is needed to reassert an upward bias again, with the top of the February gap seen at 3328/38.”