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If the S&P 500 moves below its pivotal long-term 200-week average on a sustained basis, there is clearly a risk we may be seeing a more significant bear trend develop, per Credit Suisse.

Key quotes

“Even though the S&P 500 is back above its 200-week average, we continue to view this as a corrective rebound, with major levels of what we expect to be tough resistance seen at 2855/2934, including the price gap from early March and 61.8% retracement of the Q1 collapse.”

“Above 2934 though should see a test of the 200-day average at 3015, but with a weekly close above here needed to suggest this is in fact not a corrective rally and a more important low is already in place.”

“Below 2447 is needed to mark an end to the recovery and a resumption of the downtrend, with support then seen back at 2192 and eventually 2030/2000.”