S&P 500: Returns during the rebound are likely to be strong – JP Morgan

With the equity market having hit its last new high on February 19th of this year, the depth and speed of the market drop have been ferocious. Investors are getting increasingly used to market volatility reflecting the massive amount of uncertainty in light of COVID-19, per JP Morgan Asset Management.

Key quotes 

“On average, the stock market bottoms around 1.5 months before the peak in jobless claims and 4.5 months before the end of the recession.”

“Market timing is always excruciatingly difficult, and trying to gauge when markets will bottom in this environment is no exception. Given this, even if it takes 5 years to recover to the market peak, the average annual return over that period would be 7%. If the market recovers faster, say in 3 years, that implies a 10% average annual return.”

“We are in unprecedented times and with volatility expected to be elevated over the short-term, investors should be positioned with a high-quality bias throughout portfolios. Looking ahead, regardless of how long it takes, returns during the rebound are likely to be strong.”