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The S&P 500 has again rejected its 3394 record high and with a small bearish ‘reversal day’ in place and a growing momentum divergence, the risk for a correction lower is increasing sharply, with a close below the 13-day average at 3348 needed to confirm, the Credit Suisse analyst team reports.

Key quotes

“S&P 500 move briefly to a new record high above 3394, but with strength capped again ahead trend resistance from early June, today seen at 3409 and the subsequent retreat has seen a small bearish ‘reversal day’ established. With RSI momentum still holding a bearish divergence and now threatening a small top the risk for a correction lower is seen growing steadily.” 

“Beneath 3370 should see the immediate risk stay lower for a test of the 13-day exponential average at 3348. A close below here is needed to suggest a correction lower is finally underway with support then seen next at 3326, then gap support from early August at 3317/07.” 

“Above 3392 is needed to ease the immediate downside bias for a move back to 3400. Beyond here can negate yesterday’s bearish session for strength to trend resistance at 3409 initially, then more importantly at 3432/36.”