According to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday, speculators increased net bearish positions on U.S. 10-year Treasury note (US bond) futures to 95,611 contracts in the week ended March 2.
A week earlier, speculators held a net long position of 2,789 contracts in 10-year Treasury note futures. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
Therefore, the rise in the net shorts in the 10-year futures indicates positioning for a rise in the yield. “The markets are betting against the $21tn US bond market,” macro analyst Holger Zschaepitz tweet in response to the CFTC data.
The 10-year yield rose from 1.34% to 1.39% in the week ended March 2 and extended gains to above 1.6% on Friday on the back of an upbeat Nonfarm payrolls data.
Yields could rise further, with the US President Joe Biden on the verge of passing a historic $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plan.
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