Andreas Wallström, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, notes that the Swedish Mediation Office figures show that hourly wages rose by 2.9% over the year in March, which was higher than the growth rate at 2.6% in January and February.
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“The overall picture is still that wage growth remains muted despite a rather tight labour market. And there are few signs of wage growth picking up in any marked way. Centralised wage agreements are set at just above 2% yearly up to and including the spring of 2020, which will continue to anchor wage expectations and weigh on wage growth in 2018 and 2019. Wage expectations according to the Prospera survey are consistent with a wage growth at only 2.5% over the next year.”
“We see annual wage increases at 2.7% in 2018 and 2019, i.e. well below its 20-year average of 3.4%. The Riksbank’s forecast is 2.8% in 2018 and 3.1% in 2019.”
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