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  • The VIX is 0.30% lower today as risk sentiment flip flops again.
  • Crucially the price is still above the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) for now.

Fundamental backdrop

The US bourses have popped back up in the early part of the US session on Thursday. S&P 500 futures have moved above flat for the session while the cash market is trading 0.29% higher. For once the travel sector is not at the bottom of the leaderboard and at the top its real mix with some energy names in the top ten.

Although the S&P 500 is higher the move does not look all that convincing at the moment. The price is about 37 points away from the psychological 3000 support level and the bulls have barely made a dent on yesterday’s 2.59% move lower.

VIX 1-hour (left) and daily (right) chart

The 1-hour chart on the left-hand side shows how much choppiness there has been in the VIX. There is now a range between 30 and 37.1 and a meaningful break in either direction could tell us a lot about the future trajectory of the US bourses. 

The daily chart (right) shows that half of the move higher yesterday has been pared. If the 200 Simple Moving Average and if the psychological 30 area can be breached then the bulls will firmly be back in charge. Hovering above the historical range is not great news for the bulls but more data is needed tomorrow to get a good idea of the global sentiment at the weekly close.

VIX analysis