Jean-Claude Trichet doesn’t take the leadership role that some expected from him. No big news means that Euro bears are raging – EUR/USD falls to support.
Update 14:55 – Amazing turnaround – the ECB was buying bonds while Trichet kept everybody bored and disappointed. What a show! EUR/USD went from 1.3180 before the event down to 1.3080 on the disappointment and back up all the way.
There were many doubts about such a French Style QE.
Trichet discusses oil prices, protectionism, known figures about inflation and says that inflation is inline. Jean-Claude Trichet is not supplying the ammunition to boost confidence, as politicians expected from him. He’s guarding the independence of the bank and not caving in, focusing on inflation rather than on the debt crisis.
Inflation expectations are inline with the ECB’s target. Interest rate unchanged. Main refinancing to continue as long as necessary, at least until April 2011. Unconventional measures are temporary.
He sounds as an educated academic, and not as a leader – something that European politicians expected him to be. Trichet says that banks stabilizes, and that risks should be monitored by banks – he’s looking from the side and sounds very calm. Perhaps too calm.
Trichet welcomes the Irish deal at the end of the planned statement, very briefly. Trichet was asked about sterilization and doesn’t answer. Instead, he takes pride in the low inflation the ECB maintained in the past 12 years, and boasts support from the European parliament about inflation.
Being hawkish on inflation means no bold steps…
A reporter of the Irish Times asked if the ECB was to blame for what happened to Ireland. Trichet pushes the hot potato back to the politicians that made the deal.
Another reporter asks about the situation in Spain, and Trichet says that the European Central Bank the policy is appropriate and talks about inflation again.
An Italian reporter asks about the Icelandic solution – letting banks fail and saving the sovereign from failure – the exact opposite from the deal that Ireland was forced to take. Trichet doesn’t answer the question.
Trichet is asked if the central bank took the very high Spanish yields into account when thinking about bond buying. He answered that they took this into account, and the loans will be limited to 3 month time frames. Jamie Coleman notes that the amount of bonds that the ECB buys is what the Federal Reserve eats for breakfast.
Spanish yields are currently rising to 5.15% after dropping to 5.09% before the press conference.
Update Support was lost and then regained. Euro/Dollar trading at 1.3020, still below the price before the press conference. No big news – EUR/USD falls, currently above 1.3114 line. See more technical analysis in the EUR/USD forecast.
Press conference is over.
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