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Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the CBRT to cut the 1w repo rate (and so the WACF) by 250bps at today meeting.

Key Quotes

“This is more than the Bloomberg consensus expectation for 100bps and slightly more than what we think is priced in (somewhere between 150-200bps). While we think the prudent approach would suggest holding, we think the MPC is under political pressure to cut.”

“We do however recognise that everything between 100-250bps is equally likely. If we see a cut south of 125bps, we expect USDTRY to move lower (similar to the September meeting) and to move higher if the cut is bigger than 150bps.”