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Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the main highlight for Turkey is CBRT’s Q3 inflation report today.

Key Quotes

“With headline CPI running at 15.4% Y/Y in June, three times faster than the target, and core at 14.6%, the market wonders how credible monetary policy is. In the Q2 report, the CBRT had projected CPI to end 2018 at 8.4 ±1.2%, and 6.5 ±1.8% – both forecasts look overly optimistic and will require a significant upwards revision, in the absence of which credibility of the CBRT may be further damaged.”

“Amongst the working assumptions, oil prices – a relevant driver of inflation – will have to be pushed higher from current $68/bbl and $65/bbl projections for 2018 and 2019, respectively.”

“The June trade deficit is also released today and is expected by the consensus to come in narrower at USD5.5bn, down from USD7.8bn in the prior month. Among this slew of data, markets will also be looking at the tourist arrival statistics.”