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Analysts at TD Securities note that Turkey’s December CPI printed above consensus and slightly below our forecast at 11.8% YoY (cons: 11.5% TD: 12% prior: 10.6%) on a faster than expected 0.7% MoM (cons: 0.4% prior: 0.38%).

Key Quotes

“Inflation accelerated mostly on account of faster ‘food’ (up to 10.9% from 8.9% in the prior month, and contributing 2.54ppt to the headline figure), ‘transport’ (up to 12.2% from 8.7%, contributing 2.05ppt), ‘clothing’ (up to 4.5% from 2.2%, contributing 0.33ppt), and ‘housing’ (up to 9.9% from 9.6%, contributing 1.50ppt) prices.”

“Core-C CPI (ex-energy, food, beverages, tobacco and gold) also accelerated to 9.8% y/y in December from 9.3% in the prior month. Overall, despite inflation quickening, we think the CBRT may still have a shot at easing further in Q1 2020, before tightening is forced onto them by the market later in the year.”