French opinion polls are converging around the round number of 60% support for Macron and 40% for Le Pen. This is consistent with the numbers seen in previous days and now we are seeing a convergence. The Opinionway poll released at 10:00 GMT and the IFPO one published at 16:00 GMT are now in full agreement.
Is it a done deal? We still have one significant event: a televised debate between the candidates tonight. This will be Le Pen’s chance to hit back and erode Macron’s support, hoping to create a trend in her favor.
Markets clearly favor centrist Emmanuel Macron over extremist Marine Le Pen. The latter suggested leaving the euro-zone within 6-8 months. At the moment, a victory for Macron is mostly priced in. If he wins as expected, the euro has limited room to the upside, but a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” move is unlikely – it is not fully priced in.
In case Le Pen wins, it is easy to see EUR/USD drop below parity. There is no euro without France, the core of the core.
More: French elections – all the updates in one place.
The bigger event for today is, of course, the Fed decision.
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