According to analysts at TD Securities, this morning’s UK activity data dump was categorically disappointing, with declines registered across all major components in December, and the fourth quarter GDP growth under-performing expectations, despite two-thirds of the data already released.
“Quarterly GDP came in at 0.2% q/q, while December’s monthly GDP fell a sharp 0.4% m/m.”
“Within the key components, Industrial Production fell 0.5% m/m, Construction fell 2.8% m/m, and the Index of Services fell 0.2% m/m.”
“This report will provide comfort to the MPC that their sharp downgrade to growth in 2019 will materialise, though if anything, today’s numbers are even worse than they expected just last week.”
“The snapshot for 2019Q1 GDP growth is now -0.2% q/q, meaning that the UK needs to show significant positive growth figures in the monthly data just to climb into positive growth territory.”