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Amid fears of Brexit negotiation dragging and renewed lockdown measures, the UK economy braces for a double-dip recession, according to the latest Reuters poll of over 70 economists.

Key findings

“With much of the country’s dominant service industry forced to close for most of November the economy was expected to contract 2.5% this quarter, a stark reversal from the 2.6% growth predicted last month.”

“Following a historic 19.8% contraction in the second quarter, the economy was expected to shrink 11.0% this year and expand 5.3% in 2021, much worse than the respective -10.1% and +6.1% penciled in last month.”

“There is a median 40% chance of a no-deal Brexit, the poll found, unchanged from October’s survey, and as in all Reuters polls since the June 2016 decision to leave the bloc, it said the most likely outcome was still some form of free trade agreement.”

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