UK inflation surprises with 1.9% – GBP/USD recovers above
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UK inflation surprises with 1.9% – GBP/USD recovers above

Contrary to expectations, inflation in the UK jumps and is at 1.9%, almost at target. Core CPI is at 2%, RPI at 2.6% and the HPI at 10.5%. All figures are above expectations. The UK was expected to report  headline CPI of 1.6% in June, stronger than the disappointing 1.5% in May. RPI was expected to tick up to 2.5%, Core CPI from 1.6% to 1.7% and the House Price Index to rise from 9.9% to 10.2%. All figures are year over year.

GBP/USD remained on low ground towards the publication, trading just above 1.7060. This is a 70 pip reaction. With headline inflation nearly on target and an improvement in employment, a rate hike is coming sooner than later, probably within 2014.

Update: GBP/USD is already above 1.7140. EUR/GBP is under 0.7940. The pound is also strong against other currencies.

Cable suffered a significant drop yesterday, probably in anticipation of a weak inflation number and  towards the release of employment data yesterday. Here is the preview: how to trade the UK CPI with GBP/USD.

The only figures that are below expectations are the producer prices. But these are volatile and carry less weight.

After trading above 1.7170, pound/dollar traded in a range above 1.71 for quite some time. This was broken only yesterday.

1.70 is the obvious support line under 1.7060, while 1.71 is weak  resistance. In EUR/GBP, the obvious line is 0.80. In this cross, a lot depends on pound as the euro remains steady.

For more, see the British pound prediction.

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.