UK: PM Johnson’s Brexit deal set to pass if Conservatives win majority – Standard Chartered

Assessing possible outcomes of the general election in the United Kingdom, “The Brexit Party’s decision not to field candidates in 317 Conservative constituencies has increased the likelihood of a Conservative Party majority (60%), but it is far from certain for a number of reasons,” said Standard Chartered analysts.

Key quotes

“Brexit cuts across traditional party allegiances; national polls are likely to narrow and a large number of marginal seats are susceptible to small polling shifts; and the prospect of election pacts and tactical voting could prove critical. A hung parliament leading to an opposition coalition therefore remains a distinct possibility (40%) in our view.”

“If the Conservative Party wins a majority, Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal looks set to pass; however, several Conservative MPs are not completely on board with the deal, so a no-deal outcome on 31 January cannot be ruled out. An opposition coalition is likely to legislate for a second referendum by mid-2020, plus a second referendum on Scottish independence; after these referenda, another UK GE looks inevitable.”