According to analysts at Rabobank, today’s voting in the UK’s House of Commons will set in motion a series of events that could potentially lead to Brexit being delayed by a few months, a second referendum held in the coming months and preventing Brexit or the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal.
Key Quotes
“The UK has reached a crucial juncture. Which path MPs choose in the coming days will be consequential for the country.”
“One could argue that the odds that May’s unpopular deal will be approved have increased following more reassurances regarding the Norther Ireland backstop, but it is still a close call and our baseline scenario assumes that it will be rejected.”
“If that’s the case, parliament will vote on Wednesday whether the UK should leave the EU without a deal. Given that there is no majority for a hard Brexit scenario, parliament will vote to extend Article 50 on Thursday. This vote should pass giving the UK a little bit more time (of perhaps a few months) to reach further concessions from the EU regarding the Irish border backstop. During the extended period pro-EU MPs across the entire political spectrum may also gain sufficient momentum to hold a second referendum.”
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