UK: Voting to set in motion a series of events for Brexit – Rabobank

According to analysts at Rabobank, today’s voting in the UK’s House of Commons will set in motion a series of events that could potentially lead to Brexit being delayed by a few months, a second referendum held in the coming months and preventing Brexit or the UK crashing out of the EU with no deal.

Key Quotes

“The UK has reached a crucial juncture. Which path MPs choose in the coming days will be consequential for the country.”

“One could argue that the odds that May’s unpopular deal will be approved have increased following more reassurances regarding the Norther Ireland backstop, but it is still a close call and our baseline scenario assumes that it will be rejected.”

“If that’s the case, parliament will vote on Wednesday whether the UK should leave the EU without a deal. Given that there is no majority for a hard Brexit scenario, parliament will vote to extend Article 50 on Thursday. This vote should pass giving the UK a little bit more time (of perhaps a few months) to reach further concessions from the EU regarding the Irish border backstop. During the extended period pro-EU MPs across the entire political spectrum may also gain sufficient momentum to hold a second referendum.”