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Economists at Credit Suisse now expect 10yr US Bond Yields to rise to 1.82% by the end of 2021, which is the 50% retracement of the entire fall from 2018. 

Key quotes

“US 10yr Bond Yields have broken clearly above our prior Q1 objective at the 1.25/27% March high and trend support from 2012 with ease. This should open up a relatively direct move to 1.43/48%, which is the 38.2% retracement of the move from 2018 and the potential trend support from 2016. We expect to see a concerted pause below this level during Q1, however, the ‘double bottom’ base in 10yr US Real Yields suggests we will see a break above here later in the year, with next supports at 1.685/705%, then our new core 2021 objective at 1.82%.”

“Resistance for any consolidation below 1.48/43% is seen at 1.27/25%, which we now expect to floor the market and view as an attractive fade zone for pullbacks. Next resistance is at 1.22/20%.”


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