US: 2Q GDP may have expanded a solid 4.5% in annualized terms – NBF

In the US,  the Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its advance estimate of Q2 GDP growth and analysts at National Bank Financial anticipate strong contributions from both consumption and trade based on already published data on retail sales and exports/imports.

Key Quotes

“Business investment may also have provided some lift to the economy as shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft continued their advance. Residential investment, for its part, may not add much to Q2’s print, reflecting lackluster housing starts data.”

“All told, GDP may have expanded a solid 4.5% in annualized terms in the second quarter. That would be the steepest progression since 2014Q3.”

“The week will also provide important information about the housing market. To start with, existing home sales may have stalled in June, hampered by the extremely low number of homes available on the market. Sales of new homes, meanwhile, likely fell following an outsized jump the prior month.”

“Also in June, durable goods orders may have rebounded strongly, in line with the surge registered in civilian plane orders. The preliminary reading of July’s composite PMI will also be released by Markit.”