US: April unemployment rate to exceed 15% – Wells Fargo

The weekly initial jobless claims report showed that 5.2 million American filed for unemployment insurance. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out no 22 million jobless claims have been filed in the past four weeks. According to the number, the unemployment rate should rise above 15%. 

Key Quotes: 

“While initial claims measure new applications for insurance—or the flow into unemployment—continuing claims are a measure of the stock, or number, of unemployed. The data lag an extra week but already show a record 12 million receiving benefits.”

“The insured unemployment rate rose 3.1 percentage points in just a week to a record high of 8.2% for the week ended April 4. Adding in the 5.2 million claims filed last week suggests the U3 unemployment rate in April, which will be released on May 8, should exceed 15%.”

“The peak of new claims appears to have passed, meaning focus will now shift to the duration of unemployment.”