Consumers are less confident in October and weren’t that confident back in September: a score of 98.6 is a significant miss over the 101 expected. Also, it is a big fall from a downwards revised 103.5 for September.
The publication seems to have thrown a wrench into the USD rally. EUR/USD and GBP/USD stopped bleeding, while USD/JPY cooled down.
As we have seen recently, poor data only temporarily deterred the greenback. These setbacks were followed by further gains.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence measure for October was expected to slide to 101 from the highs of 104.1, the best level since 2007, seen just in September.
The US dollar was on a roll ahead of the publication, stretching the edges against the euro, crushing the pound and also advancing nicely against the Japanese yen.
The University of Michigan’s parallel measure was quite mixed, and also retail sales were a bit off. The correlation between confidence and what consumers actually do.
We are two weeks before the US Presidential Elections and Clinton maintains her gains against Trump. The steady polls provide confidence for markets, that prefer a mainstream politician over a wildcard one. The consumer confidence measure also has political implications: stronger confidence supports the incumbent, while a lack of confidence serves the challenger.
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