Consumer confidence is expected to fade in July after the June rebound as stalled unemployment claims numbers and the difficult prospect of a new job are concerning consumer optimism. Market response will be negligible with initial claims and NFP in the wings, FXStreet’s analyst Joseph Trevisani reports.
Key quotes
“Confidence from the Conference Board is forecast to drop to 94.5 this month from 98.1 in June. The plunge from 132.6 in February to April’s 85.7 was the largest decline in the 53-year series.”
“Millions of people lost their jobs in the preventive shutdown of the US economy, though in the beginning, most may have expected to return to work when the closures were lifted, the lack of continuing progress is the most direct cause of the retreat in consumer attitudes.”
“If the decline in unemployment claims does not resume and if the recovery in employment stalls or reverses in July expect further recession in consumer attitudes. The impact on consumption and the overall economy will follow thereupon.”
“Markets will not be swayed by this sentiment figure but they are certainly attending to the claims and payroll numbers due this week and next.”
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