US: Core CPI inflation likely to rebound – Nomura

Analysts at Nomura are forecasting a 0.2% (0.244%) m-o-m increase in the US core CPI for September following a 0.082% advance in August.

Key Quotes

“On a 12-month basis, our forecast would be equivalent to 2.304% in September, up slightly from the 2.190% pace in August. The relative softness in core CPI inflation in August was mostly concentrated in certain volatile core goods prices. Thus, we think core CPI inflation will likely return to its underlying trend that seems consistent with core PCE inflation running slightly above or close to 2% y-o-y.”

“Altogether, we expect a 0.2% (0.192%) m-o-m increase in headline CPI inflation. Our forecast for CPI NSA is 252.785.”