US core inflation stuck at 1.7% again – USD falls


Disappointing US inflation figures: CPI and core CPI both miss expectations and monthly and yearly figures. Core CPI y/y failed to rise and remains stuck at 1.7%. Will the Fed reconsider the planned December hike? Retail sales data were not too bad, but not inspiring enough to mitigate the big thing: weak inflation.

We wrote that weak inflation could hit the dollar and indeed: the US dollar is falling across the board.

Here are the currency reactions, followed by the full data.

Currency reaction

  • EUR/USD traded around 1.1805 and is now surging to 1.1860.
  • GBP/USD was at support around 1.3265 and tops 1.33 once again
  • USD/JPY was at 112.25 and has fallen to 111.75
  • USD/CAD traded above 1.25 and is now down to 1.2470.
  • AUD/USD bounces from 0.7825 to 0.7870.

Here is the reaction on the euro/dollar chart. There is no doubt about the direction:

September retail sales and inflation

  • CPI m/m: previous 0.4%, exp. 0.4%, actual: 0.4%
  • Core CPI: prev. 0.2%, exp. +0.2%, actual: 0.1%
  • Core CPI y/y: prev. 1.7%, exp. 1.8%, actual: 1.7%
  • CPI y/y: prev. 1.9%, exp. 2.3%, actual: 2.2%
  • Retail sales m/m: prev. -0.2%, exp. 1.7% 1.6%
  • Core sales m/m: prev. 0.2%, exp. +0.3%, actual: 1%
  • Retail control group: prev. -0.2%, exp. +0.4%, 0.4%.

In addition, the data on real average earning has also dropped: 0.6% y/y against 1% last time.


The US was expected to report a rise in core inflation from 1.7% to 1.8% in September, boosting the case for a rate hike by the Fed. Retail sales carried expectations for a rise of 1.7% m/m.

The US dollar was stable ahead of the big bulk of data.

More: Mixed messages from the Fed on the December hike

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.


    • Yep, they may be good enough for a rate hike, but they certainly weren’t what markets were expecting. The negative reaction in the dollar is larger than usual.