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Analysts at TD Securities are on-consensus for June CPI of US and look for inflation to edge higher to 2.9% y/y, with prices up 0.2% m/m.

Key Quotes

“Core inflation should firm to 2.3% from 2.2% on a 0.2% m/m increase, also in line with market expectations. Steel and aluminum tariffs will have little impact on the headline print though higher imported consumer goods prices underpin our expectation for a 0.2% m/m print in the core index.”

“Initial jobless claims will be released alongside CPI and the market consensus is for them to dip to 225k from 231k last week.”

“Fed speak from Kashkari and Harker will round out the event calendar. Kashkari is scheduled to discuss immigration during an 8:30 ET panel discussion while Harker will deliver an economic outlook at 12:15 ET.”