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Analysts at Scotiabank offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Friday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release.

Key quotes

“Headline inflation is forecast to rise from 1% YoY in July to 1.4% principally due to forecast month-ago gains in core CPI combined with a mild assist from gasoline prices.” 

“Core CPI has risen by 0.6% m/m in seasonally adjusted terms in each of June and July and the reopening effect upon price pressures buoyed by the stimulus is expected to repeat.”

“If so, core inflation could also rise again; it bottomed at 1.2% YoY in June, climbed to 1.6% in July and is forecast to rise to over 1.7% in August.”