- DXY recedes further from Tuesday’s YTD peaks.
- Yields of the US 10-year note dropped below 1.60%.
- ISM Non-Manufacturing, Fedspeak next of relevance.
The Greenback, when gauged by the US Dollar Index (DXY), has come under renewed downside pressure and is now looking to test the key support at 99.00 the figure.
US Dollar Index focused on yields, data
The index is holding on to the 99.00 neighbourhood following two consecutive daily pullbacks, including the rejection from fresh 2019 tops near 99.70 on Tuesday.
In fact, renewed fears of a US recession have re-emerged in the wake of a decade-low print from the ISM manufacturing earlier in the week. The results impacted on yields and dragged the 10-year benchmark to fresh lows in the sub-1.60% region, where are now looking to stabilize.
In addition, the ADP report failed to ignite some lasting reaction in the buck after coming in a tad below forecasts for the month of September at 135K.
Later in the session, Challenger Job Cuts are due along with the key ISM Non-Manufacturing, Factory Orders, usual weekly Claims and Durable Goods Orders. Additionally, Chicago Fed C.Evans (voter, centrist) will speak at an event in Madrid, FOMC R.Quarles (permanent voter, centrist) speaks in Brussels, Kansas City fed E.George (voter, hawkish) will participate in a Panel Discussion on Inflation and Dallas Fed R.Kaplan (2020 voter, hawkish) will speak at a Community Forum in Houston.
What to look for around USD
The index came under selling pressure after hitting fresh 2019 highs above 99.60 on Tuesday. Further out, the sentiment around the buck is looking to recover following the shocking results from the ISM manufacturing, although the prospect still looks constructive amidst a divided FOMC vs. a broad-based dovish stance from the rest of the G-10 central banks. In spite of some key fundamentals appear to have run out of steam in past months, the labour market remains strong as well as consumer spending, while the recent pick up in inflation adds to the auspicious domestic scenario vs. the generalized slowdown in most of overseas economies. Domestic data in combination with politics and developments from the US-China trade front should be key in determining the next decision on interest rates amidst Powell’s ‘mid-term adjustment’. Looking at the broader picture, the positive view on the Dollar is also well underpinned by its safe haven appeal and the status of ‘global reserve currency’.
US Dollar Index relevant levels
At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.02% at 99.03 and a breakout of 99.67 (yearly high Oct.1) would aim for 99.89 (monthly high May 11 2017) and then 100.00 (psychological handle). On the other hand, immediate contention is located at 98.62 (21-day SMA) seconded by 98.23 (55-day SMA) and finally 97.86 (monthly low Sep.13).
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