- The index meets selling orders and returns to sub-97.00 area.
- The NFIB index surprised to the downside in January at 101.2.
- Chief Powell, JOLTs Job Openings coming up in the calendar.
The greenback met a wave of selling orders in the area of 97.20, or 2019 peaks, sparking the current knee-jerk in the US Dollar Index (DXY) to the 97.00/96.90 band so far.
US Dollar Index lower on risk-on, looks to trade
Rising speculations of a potential US-China agreement or some kind of significant announcement following this week’s talks have been sustaining the renewed upbeat mood in the riskier assets and thus sponsoring the so far moderate correction lower in the buck from fresh YTD peaks.
Also sustaining the recovery in the global markets, US lawmakers have clinched an initial agreement on Monday. The deal, which still faces some opposition from conservatives and needs to be passed in Congress and signed by President Trump, should prevent another government shutdown, at least in the near to medium term.
In the US docket, the NFIB Small Business Optimism index came in at 101.2 in January, missing estimates and recording the lowest level in the Trump administration. Later, JOLTs Job Openings is due along with the API report and speeches by Fed’s Powell and KC Fed E.George.
What to look for around USD
US-China trade talks are expected to kick in later today against the backdrop of renewed hopes of a deal and/or an extension of the 90-day truce deadline. These hopes are now helping the sentiment in the riskier assets and somewhat undermining the ongoing rally in the buck. On another front, weakness in overseas economies (vs. solid US fundamentals) plus G10 central banks apparently entering a ‘wait-and-see’ mode have been sustaining the upbeat momentum in the greenback as of late, while there is still a high degree of scepticism regarding the likeliness that the Fed’s tightening cycle could end any time soon.
US Dollar Index relevant levels
At the moment, the pair is losing 0.19% at 96.89 facing immediate contention at 96.79 (23.6% Fibo of the September-December up move) followed by 96.42 (55-day SMA) and then 96.16 (21-day SMA). On the upside, a breakout of 97.20 (2019 high Feb.12) would aim for 97.71 (2018 high Dec.14) and finally 97.87 (monthly high Jun.20 2017).