US economy on track – AmpGFX
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US economy on track – AmpGFX

US economic reports were mixed to a bit weaker than expected yesterday, but probably don’t move the needle much on the US outlook, according to Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital.  

Key Quotes

“The Fed Beige book sounded more upbeat in May than April.   It pointed to some tightening in labour market conditions and firmer price pressures.   Although certainly not ringing any alarm bells that inflation pressure is picking up too much.”

“Weekly mortgage applications have eased for 5-weeks in a row, perhaps indicative of rising mortgage rates, although the series is still broadly in a rising trend.”

“The ADP employment report rose 178K, less than 190K expected, and revised down from 204K to 163K in April.   The three-month average for ADP employment growth is 180K in May.”

“The market median forecast for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report is for an increase of 190K in May (after a rise of 168K in April).”

“At the margin, the ADP report may dampen expectations for Friday’s payrolls. But the market may presume any slowing in jobs growth may be more indicative of tightening supply of available workers, and the focus will be on the unemployment rate and wages, along with other metrics on available workers, including broader U6-underutilization rate.”

“The US GDP Q1 was revised down to 2.2%q/q SAAR from 2.3%, although the mix in the data was more encouraging with stronger business investment and lower inventory accumulation.”

“Business investment contributed 1.1% q/q SAAR   to GDP growth in Q1, the largest amount since Q3-2014, continuing a strong pattern for a 5th  quarter in a row.”

“After a weaker than average Q1, continuing a pattern of low Q1 outcomes over recent years, partial indicators are pointing to much stronger GDP growth in Q2.   The Atlanta Fed Nowcast is at 4.0%.   The New York Fed Nowcast is at 3.0%, and St Louis Fed Eco News index is projecting a 3.6%.”

“However, the core PCE in the GDP report was revised down from 2.5% to 2.3% q/q SAAR in Q1.   The April PCE inflation data is due tomorrow, and should reflect some downward revision in recent data.   The market is looking for a 1.8%y/y result for core PCE in April.”

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