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“Joe Biden has maintained a healthy lead over President Donald Trump in the national polling average (+9pp), with the gap even widening marginally after both parties’ conventions in August,” noted TD Securities analysts in their latest US Election Tracker report. “Biden is in a better standing than Hillary Clinton at the same stage of the race in 2016.”

Key quotes

“While Biden continues to lead in several swing states (and remains competitive in others), betting markets suggest momentum is shifting in Trump’s direction. This perhaps reflects Biden’s recent loss of shine in some battleground polls, while the sustained easing of COVID-19 cases across the country is also likely to be helping the incumbent. Biden has lost about a 1pp edge in polling in MI, WI and FL, while he has gained ground in NC.”

“Betting odds indicate a blue wave is the most likely outcome, with Dems on track to flip four seats in the Senate. Democrats are also expected to maintain (and even add to) its majority in the House.”

“Key events coming up include the start of early voting in several states on 20 Sep, followed by the first presidential debate nine days later.”


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