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“We continue to expect more slowing in growth in the months ahead, as fiscal stimulus turns into a fiscal drag,” TD Securities analysts said in a report previewing this week’s key macroeconomic events in the US.

Key quotes

“We see upside risks relative to the consensus for the September Retail Sales data as well, albeit due in part at least to statistical issues: We suspect the seasonal factors are exaggerating gains, with consumer spending patterns changing during the pandemic. Conversely, we forecast a weaker-than-consensus Industrial Production report this week.”

“We expect another sizable fiscal package eventually, but probably not until there is a new Congress in January.”

“The Trump-versus-Biden debate scheduled for this week has been cancelled; the president objected when the format was switched to virtual from in-person. Meanwhile, former VP Biden has been adding to his lead.”