US: Focus on jobless claims and Philly Fed survey – Nomura


Analysts at Nomura suggest that despite some holiday-related choppiness in initial claims data over the past few weeks, they continue to expect jobless claims to remain low in light of a strong economic outlook.

Key Quotes

“Heading towards Memorial Day and the end of the school year in the US, we could see additional volatility over the next month.”

Philly Fed survey: We expect a reading of 20.0 for the Philly Fed survey in May. Similar to our forecast for the Empire State survey, we expect a slight pullback in sentiment as businesses still appear to be uneasy about recently-enacted steel and aluminum tariffs with prospects of a further escalation in trade tension with China. Despite the negative effects of recent US trade policy announcements, manufacturing activity should remain healthy over the near term.”


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