Analysts at Nomura suggest that despite some holiday-related choppiness in initial claims data over the past few weeks, they continue to expect jobless claims to remain low in light of a strong economic outlook.
“Heading towards Memorial Day and the end of the school year in the US, we could see additional volatility over the next month.”
“Philly Fed survey: We expect a reading of 20.0 for the Philly Fed survey in May. Similar to our forecast for the Empire State survey, we expect a slight pullback in sentiment as businesses still appear to be uneasy about recently-enacted steel and aluminum tariffs with prospects of a further escalation in trade tension with China. Despite the negative effects of recent US trade policy announcements, manufacturing activity should remain healthy over the near term.”