Generally weak US data: the economy grew by 1.9%, below expectations. Adding fuel to the fire, a replenishing of inventories contributed 1% to GDP. A buildup in inventories during one quarter tends to result in a depletion in the following one. Durable goods orders are down 0.4%. Core orders are at 0.5% as expected and even with an upwards revision.
The US dollar is down, but certainly not out. Update: the greenback bounces back after the fall, but is not going anywhere fast.
The US was expected to report that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.2% in Q4 2016, in its first release. The initial estimate has the biggest impact. In Q3, the economy finally bounced back after three consecutive quarters of subdued growth and advanced by 3.5% according to the final read.
The initial reaction is to the headline number, but also the composition of growth matters: consumer spending and investment are “good growth” while inventory buildup and government spending are “bad growth”. Preview: trading the US GDP with EUR/USD.
The US dollar was generally stronger ahead of the publication. EUR/USD traded around 1.0675, GBP/USD at 1.2535, USD/JPY around 115.20, USD/CAD at 1.3115, AUD/USD at 0.7535 and NZD/USD 0.7250,
The GDP release consists of additional measures: Core PCE was expected to rise 1.4%, the PCE by 2.1% and the deflator by 2.1% after 1.4% beforehand.
At the same time, durable goods orders for December were published. A rise of 2.6% in the headline figure was predicted to follow a drop of 4.5% in November. Core orders carried expectations of +0.5% after 0.6%.
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