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Analysts at Westpac, expect the US Q2 GDP to print 4.2% as a very strong Q2 outcome has long been expected by the market.

Key Quotes

“Following a modest gain of 2.0% in Q1, in part because of particularly poor weather, US GDP is set to bounce over 4.0%. There are a number of risks, primarily around deflators for trade and consumption, that could see the final number come out anywhere between 3.5% and 4.5% annualised. But to us the most likely outcome is circa 4.2%.”

“In terms of the components, trade and government spending are expected to be strong positives, with business investment and consumption also set to provide material support.”

“Following this release, attention will quickly turn to the second half of 2018. Here, expectations are also very high, but to us so are the risks.”

“In recent business investment partial data, there has been signs of a softening, and anecdotes on the effect from tariffs are rising. Real income growth for the consumer is also a looming constraint.”