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In view of analysts at Nomura, this week will be important for evaluating the strength of US current economic momentum after somewhat softer-than-expected trade and durable goods data last week and a worsening housing outlook.

Key Quotes

“We expect a solid 180k gain in September nonfarm payroll employment and a healthy 0.3% m-o-m increase in average hourly earnings (AHE) with some upside AHE risk from weak aggregate hours data as a result of Hurricane Florence as aggregate working hours are a denominator of AHE and total compensation, a numerator of AHE tends to be less sensitive to inclement weather.”

“The September AHE data will be important for evaluating whether a stronger trend in wage growth is emerging. However, the potential disruption from Hurricane Florence may add additional noise to the monthly figure.”

“We expect both the ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing surveys to moderate slightly while remaining elevated and continue to expect incoming data to be roughly consistent with an economy growing at 3%.”