US Jobless Claims Disappoint – Trigger Risk Aversive Trading

The weekly American unemployment claims disappointed once again, showing 403K. Yet again, the outcome was above 400K, after it already managed to settle in the 380s. This shows that last week’s rise to 416K (revised higher from 412K) shows that the rise wasn’t a one time event. “safe haven” currencies are on the rise against the US dollar, while other currencies retreat.

Jobless claims are the primary indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls, making this weekly figure very important. Claims saw a good period, dropping from a range of 430 – 500K to around 380K. Drops below 380K and rises above these levels were one time events. The rise above the psychological level of 400K, for a second week in a row, is worrying, not only for the US.

EUR/USD is at support at 1.4580. It earlier made a significant rise and reached 1.4650. It’s had quite a wild week, falling to 1.4160 and making all the way back up, reaching 16 month highs.

For more on the Euro, see the EUR/USD forecast.

GBP/USD is at 1.6568. Both aren’t really enjoying this week US figure.

But USD/JPY is pushing lower, and is now at 81.81. And USD/CHF, is digging to fresh all time lows at 0.8787. Both are “safe haven’ currencies.

Commodity currencies are retreating: AUD/USD and NZD/USD are falling. USD/CAD is rising. In Canada, retail sales showed a mixed picture – retail sales rose by 0.4% – 0.6% was expected, but core retail sales rose by 0.7%, higher than 0.5% that was predicted. So all in all, the rise of USD/CAD to 0.95 is mostly due to risk aversive trading related to the US jobless claims.