US jobless claims dropped more than expected and fell to 316K. They were expected to rise to 331K from 323K last week (before revisions). This is encouraging. On the other hand, durable goods orders fell by 2%, more than a slide of 1.5% expected and after rising 3.8% last month. Core orders carried expectations of a small rise of 0.5% after dropping 0.2% beforehand but they fell short and fell by 0.1%. Jobless claims are published today and not on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday.
Before the publication, EUR/USD was just under 1.36, GBP/USD traded around 1.63 after a move higher and USD/JPY was steady around 101.70. The US dollar is slightly weaker after the publication.
Continuing claims dropped to 2.776 million, joining the good news from the headline unemployment claims number. The 4 week moving average slid from 338.5K to 331.75K and it is sliding to levels seen before the computer issues in California and the government shutdown.
Yesterday, CB consumer confidence disappointed while housing figures showed strength. All in all, expectations are now somewhat higher for QE tapering in December due to lower expectations of a hike in the Federal Funds Rate. A lot depends on the Non-Farm Payrolls report for November, scheduled for December 6th.
Further reading: ECB could set a negative deposit rate in Q1 2014; Real reason behind a potential “Dectaper”
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