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US jobless claims were expected to rise to 315K, up from 307K last week (revised up from 305K initially reported). Assuming no immediate deal in Washington, there will be no publication of the Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday, making this publication of higher importance. Continuing claims stand at 2925K against 2805K expected.  

EUR/USD traded just under the 1.36 level it crossed earlier. USD/JPY stood on 97.65 and GBP/USD slipped off 1.62 once again. This small positive surprise has little impact on currencies.

In previous weeks, data was distorted due to some computer issues in California. Officially, the issues are now resolved and data is accurate, but some still suspect the low numbers.

Jobless claims have been an outlier recently: improvement in claims wasn’t reflected in too many other data figures. The government shutdown will not affect claims: they will continue being published, and the government furloughs will not be reflected in the numbers.

US politicians are not really getting closer to cutting a deal on a budget and the government is only partially operating. Some important US indicators are provided by private institutes (such as yesterday’s disappointing ADP report) and some are still released by the government, such as this one.

But without the NFP, the Fed will find it ever harder to find evidence of an improving economy, in addition to the damage done by the shutdown. So, even spectacular numbers from the numbers that are actually released will have a limited impact, as the Fed continues its QE-infinity.

This isn’t the only event today. There is another one coming up at 14:00 GMT: See how to trade the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI with USD/JPY.

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