US Jobs Number could be decisive for Fed tapering


This Friday the all important US Non Farm Payrolls number is released for August and a strong number could be very bullish for the USD whilst hammering risk currencies and assets given the implications for US monetary policy.

Various polls of economists suggest NFP could come in around 180,000, compared with 162,000 in July, which was below forecasts for 182,000 and left USD bulls disappointed. This shows the number can be relatively unpredictable and is more than capable of delivering surprises.

By Justin Pugsley, Markets Analyst MahiFX Follow MahiFX on twitter

However, August was a good month for the US economy with various hiring surveys implying a positive trend and weekly unemployment benefits claims trended lower. So the run of good economic numbers from the US may start to drive faster employment creation, which is anyway a lagging indicator.

A number that surprises on the upside, say 200,000 or over, should see a higher USD against EUR, JPY and GBP and would be particularly bad news for many already struggling emerging market currencies suffering in anticipation of a winding down of US quantitative easing.

Friday should see big volatility burst

EURUSD-Chart040913 euro to dollar technical trading and outlook

Strong jobs number likely to see start of Fed tapering 

A strong number would also imply that the Fed will wind down its $85 billion a month purchasing programme soon, possibly even this month. However, given the relatively strong performance by USD of late, it is probably more vulnerable to a knee-jerk sell-off on a surprise weak number.

But even then USD weakness may only be short lived given the brewing Middle East crisis involving Syria. There are also a host of other potentially bullish, read risk aversion inducing, events for USD. These include the next round of haggling over the US budget deficit in October and of course the replacement of the current Fed chairman on January 1, 2014. A new Fed chairman always injects a certain amount of uncertainty while the markets get used to them.

Upside targets for EUR/USD are around 1.3180, 1.3200, 1.3230 and 1.3240 and on the downside at 1.3130, 1.3100-1.3090, 1.3050 and 1.2990-1.3000.

Further reading: EUR/USD: Trading the US Non-Farm Payrolls

Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

About Author

MahiFX is headed by David Cooney, former global co-head of currency options and e-FX trading at Barclays Capital and responsible for the award winning e-commerce platform BARX and Susan Cooney, former head of e-FX Institutional Sales in Europe for Barclays Capital. Operating as a market maker, MahiFX provides traders direct access to institutional level execution speeds and spreads through its proprietary-built fully automated pricing and risk management technology, lowering the cost of retail forex trading. MahiFX global operations are headquartered in Christchurch, New Zealand with offices in London, UK with development and support teams in both locations for 24 hour service. The company is regulated by The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), Australia’s corporate, markets and financial services regulator. Article by Justin Pugsley, Markets Analyst MahiFX  Follow MahiFX on twitter and on facebook  Disclaimer: This material is considered a public relations communication for general information purposes and does not contain, and should not be construed as containing, investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments. MahiFX makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided. The use of MahiFX’s services must be based on your own research and advice, and no reliance should be placed on any information provided or comment made by any director, officer or employee of MahiFX. Any opinions expressed may be personal to the author, and may not reflect the opinions of MahiFX, and are subject to change without notice


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