US: Jobs recovery unlikely to be complete by the end of 2022 – Wells Fargo

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Data released on Friday showed the US economy added 661K jobs in September, below the 850K expected. Analysts at Wells Fargo point out that 52% of the 22.2 million jobs lost are now recovered. They see the second half of the recovery could be painfully slow. 

Key Quotes: 

“The September jobs report offered more evidence that the second half of the economy’s recovery will be much slower than the first. Employers added 661K jobs last month, less than half the number added in August. The headline number was held down by the release of 34K temporary Census workers.”

“Today’s employment report is somewhat more backward looking than usual due to the fast-moving nature of the pandemic and relatively early survey period (week of Sep. 6). A wave of high-profile mass layoff announcements in recent days and stubbornly high jobless claims suggest the speed of the recovery is likely to downshift even further in the coming months.”

“Just over half (52%) of the 22.2M jobs lost are now recovered, and with the virus continuing to circulate and waning fiscal support, the second half of the recovery will likely be notably, and at times, painfully slower. While we estimate GDP will recover to its pre-pandemic level by late 2021, the jobs recovery is unlikely to be complete by the end of 2022.”
 

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