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Analysts at TD Securities suggest that the US PCE inflation is expected by TD and the wider market to edge lower to 2.2% y/y on a modest 0.1% increase in the headline index.

Key Quotes

“Core PCE inflation should remain unchanged at 2.0% y/y, a six-year high. TD sees upside risks to personal spending, where we look for a 0.4% advance (market: 0.3%) but are on-consensus for personal incomes to rise by 0.4% on the month. University of Chicago PMI for September and the final print of University of Michigan sentiment will round out the data calendar. The market looks for the former to edge lower to 62.0 from 63.6 while consumer sentiment is projected to be revised slightly lower to 100.5.”